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"Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis" by James Rickards delves into the hidden and escalating global conflict centered around currency devaluation and manipulation as countries compete to gain economic advantage.
Key points and summary:
Rickards argues that currency wars, involving competitive devaluation of currencies, create significant economic instability and can lead to inflation, recession, retaliation, and even violence.
The book opens with an account of a secret war game held by the US Defense Department to prepare for a potential collapse of the U.S. dollar, highlighting how unprepared national security agencies were for such a crisis.
Historical examples show that currency wars have occurred several times in the 20th century and always ended badly, with collapses of paper currencies, asset freezes, and imposition of capital controls.
Rickards highlights the threat posed by China’s currency policies and large gold purchases, along with the vulnerability of the US due to massive money printing (quantitative easing).
The competitive devaluation strategy, while benefiting countries in the short term by making exports cheaper, ultimately hurts global economic utility and cooperation.
The book critiques traditional economic theories and economists, pointing out their failure to foresee or prevent financial crises.
Rickards warns that the next currency war could lead to a crisis worse than the 2008 financial crash, with severe consequences for national security and global markets.
He advocates for more informed policymaking, greater vigilance, and international cooperation to mitigate the risks of a currency collapse.
The book is lauded for its detailed analysis and credible warnings from an experienced financial analyst, though it contains technical jargon that may challenge readers without background in economics. It serves as a gripping yet cautionary account of how current global economic competition could trigger serious financial crises.
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